My Thoughts on the Miami Heat

Let's face it: just about 90% of the teams in the NBA suck. Even teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder, with the Jordan-in-the-making Kevin Durant, will never win anything. No, the NBA is really a three-team league. And those four teams are the Boston Celtics, the Los Angeles Lakers, the Orlando Magic, and the Miami Heat.

These four teams get it. What I mean is that they understand that you need more than one star to make things click. By my count, the Celtics have at least four legitimate stars (Garnett, Allen, Pierce, Rondo), the Lakers have three-and-a-half (Bryant, Gasol, Bynum, Artest), and the Heat and the Magic each have three (Heat: Wade, Bosh, James; Magic: Howard, Lewis, Carter). But really, only two of these teams have any shot of making the Finals: the Lakers and the Celtics. There are plenty of reasons why.

Reason #1: Nobody in the NBA can guard Rajon Rondo - In his ridiculous TV special, LeBron James dropped Rondo's name as a type of player he'd like to play with: a point guard capable of getting him the ball and creating his own shot when the other options don't pan out. James was confident that Mario Chalmers can fill that role. The only problem is, Mario Chalmers is not Rajon Rondo, and Rondo is on the Boston Celtics, not the Miami Heat. And it's going to be a long season in Miami if they're going to wait for Chalmers to somehow become Rondo. Not going to happen.

Reason #2: Nobody in the West can guard Pau Gasol - This is incredibly important. With big men Stoudemire and Boozer leaving for greener pastures in the East (New York and Chicago, respectively), the crop of talented big men in the West is depleted. The only guys who even have a chance of keeping Gasol under 20 points a game are Minnesota's Kevin Love, Memphis' Zach Randolph, David Lee of the Warriors, Dirk Nowitzki of the Mavs, Al Jefferson of the Jazz, Tim Duncan of the Spurs, and the young front line on the Sacramento Kings. That leaves the Suns, the Clippers, the Thunder, the Rockets, the Nuggets, and the Hornets without answers. The Lakers can't exactly take it easy against those six teams, but they don't have to be as diversified in their attacks to win.

Reason #3: LeBron James doesn't know how to win a game in the final two minutes - There's only so much you can blame on former Cavs coach Mike Brown and GM Danny Ferry for the lack of a Cavs title. Yes, Brown made head-scratching substitutions and never allowed his team to create a flow when it mattered. Yes, he was probably the worst coach of a good team. And you can lay blame on Ferry for not surrounding LeBron with top-flight talent. I remember a number of people telling me how good Mo Williams was though I never saw it nor bought it. But the Cavs lived and died by LeBron James. And to his credit, he was probably the single-best player in the game for the past few years. But that doesn't excuse him not being able to hit free throws when they mattered. Nor does it excuse the fact that he couldn't deliver consistently in the playoffs. I don't see him maturing on the Heat. I see him not understanding why every play doesn't revolve around him.

Reason #4: Chris Bosh is in for a rude wake-up - Bosh started last season as a monster, crashing the boards and leading the offense for the Raptors. Then he got hurt, and for the rest of the season he was above-average, not spectacular. Not a particularly stellar season, especially since he did not make the players around him better; Toronto finished near the bottom of the East. That in and of itself is not all that interesting. What's interesting about it is that Antawn Jamison, a similar player to Bosh, was traded to the Cavs at last year's deadline and did not make the team all that much better, even though he was a legitimate star teaming up with LeBron James. So, if history proves correct, then that's two out of the Heat's three stars who don't make their teammates better. I see Bosh ending up as a high-profile role player: a big guy who will have to accept that his job is crashing the boards for put-backs and kicking it out to Wade and James for jumpers.

Reason #5: The NBA and its referees love Kobe Bryant and the Lakers - I don't see why this is so hard to believe. The NBA, for all it's fanfare about each team having a shot at the title, is superstar-centric. If your team has a superstar, calls will go your way and you're probably going to win. Here's a list of undeniable superstars:

1. Kobe Bryant, Lakers
2. Kevin Durant, Thunder
3. LeBron James, Heat
4. Dwyane Wade, Heat
5. Steve Nash, Suns
6. Dirk Nowitzki, Mavs
7. Carmelo Anthony, Nuggets
8. Derrick Rose, Bulls
9. Chris Paul, Hornets
10. Paul Pierce, Celtics
11. Pau Gasol, Lakers
12. Tim Duncan, Spurs
13. Dwight Howard, Magic
14. Kevin Garnett, Celtics
16. Deron Williams, Jazz

Notice how there's no one on there from about 20 teams? Yeah, those 20 teams aren't going to make it very far in the playoffs, if they make it at all.

Reason #6: The Celtics are talented from the top guy down to the tenth man - This is important because the Heat aren't. Let's take a look at their rosters side by side:

Celtics
1. Paul Pierce, F
2. Rajon Rondo, G
3. Kevin Garnett, F
4. Ray Allen, G
5. Kendrick Perkins, C (INJ)
6. Glen Davis, F
7. Jermaine O'Neal, F/C
8. Nate Robinson, G
9. Shaquille O'Neal, C
10. Marquis Daniels, G
11. Avery Bradley, G
12. Semih Erden, C

Heat
1. Dwyane Wade, G
1a. LeBron James, F
3. Chris Bosh, F
4. Mike Miller, G/F
5. Mario Chalmers, G
6. Udonis Haslem, F
7. Carlos Arroyo, G
8. Joel Anthony, C
9. Eddie House, G
10. Juwan Howard, F
11. Zydrunas Ilgauskas, C
12. Dexter Pittman, C

The Celtics don't have a #1 and #1a, like the Heat. What the Celtics have is roster cohesion. Believe me, the other nine guys on the Heat know that they are there to get Bosh, James, and Wade the ball and get out of the way. But what happens when Bosh is on the bench with four fouls, James is having an off-night and Wade is hurt? Is there enough chemistry on the floor for Arroyo to start chucking up shots?

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Jeff Van Gundy famously predicted that the Miami Heat will shatter the Chicago Bulls' single-season record of 72 wins, and they very well could, simply because about 90% of the NBA sucks right now. Here's a list of the teams they can beat handily:

Los Angeles Clippers
New Orleans Hornets
New York Knicks
New Jersey Nets
Philadelphia 76ers
Washington Wizards
Cleveland Cavaliers
Minnesota Timberwolves
Milwaukee Bucks
Detroit Pistons
Memphis Grizzlies
Indiana Pacers
Houston Rockets (without Yao)
Phoenix Suns
Sacramento Kings

{That's about half the league right there, so a guaranteed 36 wins and one or two losses. This next group is harder to beat:

Golden State Warriors
Chicago Bulls
Denver Nuggets
Oklahoma City Thunder
Atlanta Hawks
Dallas Mavericks
San Antonio Spurs

The Heat will probably get about nine wins here, with seven losses. As for the elite teams:

Los Angeles Lakers
Boston Celtics
Orlando Magic

These are more evenly matched, and I see the Heat finishing with a middling record against these three, so three wins against three losses.

I just don't see the Heat as world-beaters. They're going to be very, very good because other teams won't know how to prepare, at least at the beginning of the season. I'm guessing they'll win close to 60-63 games.